Western politicians have repeatedly called on China to limit or stop its covert support for Russia's bloody war against Ukraine. In response, Chinese leaders have insisted they are committed to peace and respect for other countries' territorial integrity.
However, unlike most United Nations (UN) member states, China has never condemned Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the Sino-Russian military-diplomatic partnership — from joint flights of the two countries' bombers near the American state of Alaska to voting at the UN Security Council — has helped the Kremlin overcome its international isolation.
Although President Donald Trump says he has good personal relationships with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, there is a consensus among experts in Washington that the China-Russia partnership poses a threat to US interests, and that while Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden, tried to build a strategic dialogue with China, the Trump team appears to be prioritizing normalizing relations with Russia while punishing China over trade.
While the White House has talked about the possibility of restoring economic cooperation with Russia, some of its officials have hinted at lifting or easing sanctions that Washington has imposed on Moscow in recent years.
Charles Hecker, an expert on Western-Russian economic relations and risks, and author of the book " Zero Sum: The Arc of International Business in Russia ," said some Western companies would quickly return to Russia if sanctions were lifted, particularly those in the energy, metals and minerals sectors.
"There is limited oil in Norway, and there is limited oil in Canada; the rest is in a few countries that have a very high-risk environment," Hecker told VOA Russian.
"So these companies are used to doing business in these places, and they have internal structures to help protect them. You know, there are energy companies doing business in Iraq right now. And I don't want to compare Russia and Iraq, but they're both high-risk environments." But, Hecker cautioned, their return to doing business in Russia would not signal a complete recovery in U.S.-Russian relations — let alone a breakdown in China-Russia relations.
"I think it will be very difficult for the West to pull Russia away from China," he said.
"Allowing Western companies to return to Russia does not necessarily change President Putin's hostility toward the West. President Putin remains antagonistic toward the Western-dominated political and economic system, and he has repeatedly said that he wants to create an alternative political and economic environment – an alternative to the West.
"Part of that alternative includes China," he added. "You've never heard President Putin say anything ideologically opposed to China. And both are now important energy partners."
Limited domestic appeal
US-based think tank FilterLabs analyzes public sentiment in troubled regions in polls. According to a recently published assessment of popular attitudes expressed on Russian and Chinese social media networks, China-Russia relations are “fraught with underlying tensions, mistrust and divergent interests.”
One of the report's authors, Vasily Gatov, told VOA that his research found that "the Chinese and Russian populations are far from happy with this alliance of their authorities."
"China does not consider Russia a reliable, safe and equal partner," he said.
“Russia annexed the Amur Region from China; Russia adopted a full-fledged colonial policy towards China during the 19th and early 20th centuries. Therefore, in my opinion, it is quite possible to regard historical friction as a vulnerability.”
A media analyst at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism, Gatov also noted that, despite Kremlin expectations, China's economic presence in Russia today remains "several times smaller" than Europe or the US was before Russia invaded Ukraine.
So, even though Russia and China have common interests, they do not always “walk hand in hand.”
"They are very different, they have very different geopolitical focuses, very different political philosophies," he said.
However, other experts have questioned Filterlabs' findings, warning that random Russian and Chinese opinions online are of limited value, especially since those providing the insights are unlikely to influence policy.
"People who have the time and desire to comment on things on social media don't have much influence on how state policy is implemented," Alexander Gabuev, director of the Berlin-based Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told VOA.
"And these people certainly don't have much influence on whether China transfers components for Russian weapons or takes certain military technologies from it, because the people who comment on this have absolutely no real knowledge of what is really happening." Gabuev added that "the Chinese leadership has every reason to think that they have something to copy from Russia in terms of military technology," suggesting that China is very interested in gaining Russian experience in countering Western weapons during Russia's war in Ukraine.
Does Trump view China as a threat?
One key question about whether Washington's improving ties with Russia will loosen the China-Russia pact, some analysts say, is how Trump views China.
Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser on the US and China at the International Crisis Group, described Trump as an anomaly for US policy.
"The broad bipartisan consensus in Congress and from one administration to the next [is] that China is America's principal strategic competitor," he said.
But “President Trump is, in many ways, the most prominent dissenter from this supposed China consensus.” “He doesn’t view President Xi [Jinping] as an enemy,” Wyne said. “He even calls President Xi his ‘best friend.’ He believes that his personal relationship with President Xi will be the defining dynamic in building — or re-building — the U.S.-China relationship over the next four years.”
Post a Comment for "Can America Woo Russia Away from China?"